Detecting and cleaning outliers for robust estimation of variogram models in insect count data

Abstract

Outlier detection and cleaning procedures were evaluated to estimate mathematical restricted variogram models with discrete insect population count data. Because variogram modeling is significantly affected by outliers, methods to detect and clean outliers from data sets are critical for proper variogram modeling. In this study, we examined spatial data in the form of discrete measurements of insect counts on a rectangular grid. Two well-known insect pest population data were analyzed; one data set was the western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) on greenhouse cucumbers and the other was the greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) on greenhouse cherry tomatoes. A spatial additive outlier model was constructed to detect outliers in both the isolated and patchy spatial distributions of outliers, and the outliers were cleaned with the neighboring median cleaner. To analyze the effect of outliers, we compared the relative nugget effects of data cleaned of outliers and data still containing outliers after transformation. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values were compared using the leave-one-out cross-validation method with data cleaned of outliers and non-cleaned data after unbiased back transformation. The outlier detection and cleaning procedure improved geostatistical analysis, particularly by reducing the nugget effect, which greatly impacts the prediction variance of kriging. Consequently, the outlier detection and cleaning procedures used here improved the results of geostatistical analysis with highly skewed and extremely fluctuating data, such as insect counts.