What do the Chinese Think? Security Perceptions of the Chinese Public

Abstract

One of the recent major debates among scholars in international relations has been the issue of the "China threat." In an attempt to shed new light on this discussion, this paper raises a question different from the questions commonly asked thus far: What does the Chinese public think? To understand how the Chinese public perceives China's security environment and the rise of China, this paper utilizes the results of a recent survey conducted in China. The findings of this paper provide sources both for relief and concern. The Chinese public holds a relatively benign view on China's security environment and the United States. It understands the world as more power-balanced than U. S.-centric and shows no evident sign of hostility toward the existing world order. However, the Chinese public's heightened optimism and strong confidence in China's national power betray worrisome signs of self-overestimation and preference for China's aggressive intervention in world affairs. Considering that the CCP is increasingly relying on nationalism as an alternative source of legitimacy, what is particularly alarming is the potential for the public's nationalistic sentiments that could push the Chinese government to react aggressively to international security issues, such as crises on the Korean peninsula. The Chinese public's security perceptions analyzed in this paper suggest that the "China threat" might be an exaggeration at this point but there are disturbing signs that confirm the need for caution.