Demographic Structure and Financial Markets in Korea

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the demographic structure and asset prices in Korea based on the standard life-cycle model. To this end, this paper employs a non-parametric model which has an advantage of no functional form for the relationship a priori. We find that the estimated relation between the real interest rate and population density function is consistent with the implication from life-cycle models, whereas the relation between the normalized stock price and population density function is not. The projection based on the projected population estimates indicates that the real interest rate is going to rise until the 2020 due to the increase trend of old consumers and their dissaving behavior after the retirement.