태양광모듈 생산 증설투자에 대한 의사결정: 실물옵션모형에 의한 경영유연성 가치 분석On Determining the Size and the Timing of the Capacity Expansion in PV Module Manufacturing: Management Flexibility in Real Options Model
- Other Titles
- On Determining the Size and the Timing of the Capacity Expansion in PV Module Manufacturing: Management Flexibility in Real Options Model
- Authors
- 김경남; 선우석호
- Issue Date
- 2011
- Publisher
- 한국신·재생에너지학회
- Keywords
- Discounted cash flow method; Real options model; Management flexibility; Production capacity; PV module manufacturing; 현금흐름할인법; 실물옵션모델; 경영유연성; 생산능력; 태양광모듈 제조
- Citation
- 신재생에너지, v.7, no.2, pp.18 - 27
- Indexed
- KCI
OTHER
- Journal Title
- 신재생에너지
- Volume
- 7
- Number
- 2
- Start Page
- 18
- End Page
- 27
- URI
- https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/113538
- ISSN
- 1738-3935
- Abstract
- Management flexibility to adapt its future actions in response to altered future market conditions can expand the value of an investment opportunity by improving its upside potential without the change in the downside losses. Module manufacturers in solar industry continuously have to decide how much and when its production capacity should be expanded with regards to the demand in the global markets. Either over- or under-investment can cause sunk and/or opportunity costs to the module manufacturers. Option of exercising the additional investments only on favorable opportunities can increase total value of the investment. This paper analyzes the case which shows that the expansion of production capacity with more expandibility can have more value than the rigid plan of capacity expansion. The expansion option value is equivalent to KRW 38.286 billion, thus switching the negative NPV of the initial investment opportunity into the positive value. High volatility and the high growth in the cashflows as the major business features of the renewable energy provide condition where real options can play the crucial role in increasing the investment value as well as in determining the size and timing of capacity expansion in the course of capital budgeting process.
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Collections - Graduate School of Energy and Environment (KU-KIST GREEN SCHOOL) > Department of Energy and Environment > 1. Journal Articles
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