HOW DOES CHANGING AGE DISTRIBUTION IMPACT STOCK PRICES? A NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH

Abstract

This paper examines whether variations in demographic structure have influenced stock prices. The study employs a nonparametric approach based on the Fourier Flexible Form representation, which relates variations in the entire age distribution to the normalized stock price under a flexible functional form. The main findings of this paper are that there is a significant impact from prime working-age consumers on the stock price, and that this impact is robust for all G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA). These findings survive many robust tests, and are consistent with the predictions from the life-cycle models. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.