미국과 중국 간의 무력분쟁 가능성에 관한 연구

Abstract

This article investigates how a war could occur between China and the United States. It first explores how the United States came to have military conflicts with ascending great powers in the twentieth century. The historical cases examined include U.S. wars with Imperial Germany (1917~1918), Nazi Germany (1941~1945), and Imperial Japan (1941~1945), as well as the Cold War with the Soviet Union (1946~1962). The article then explains historical regularities using an analytical framework centered on the concept of“offshore balancing.”The article uses the findings of this historical and logical analysis to make predictions about the prospects for armed conflict between the United States and China. It argues that an overt conflict between these countries is unlikely over the short to medium term; however, in the long term a U.S.-China confrontation could emerge if regional states become unable to prevent Chinese hegemony over East Asia. Then, Washington would likely take direct coercive measures to contain Chinese power, while Beijing would attempt to avoid a direct clash through accommodation. But Beijing might eventually decide to challenge the United States and accept the risk of war, if China believed that it would lose an opportunity to achieve regional hegemony and that U.S. military intervention would not be timely or powerful enough to stop it. While this tragic scenario is a real possibility, however, recent technological developments have reduced its likelihood.