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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Authors
Stanaway, Jeffrey D.Afshin, AshkanGakidou, EmmanuelaLim, Stephen S.Abate, DeguAbate, Kalkidan HassellAbbafati, CristianaAbbasi, NooshinAbbastabar, HedayatAbd-Allah, FoadAbdela, JemalAbdelalim, AhmedAbdollahpour, IbrahimAbdulkader, Rizwan SuliankatchiAbebe, MollaAbebe, ZegeyeAbera, Semaw F.Abil, Olifan ZewdieAbraha, Haftom NiguseAbrham, Aklilu RobaAbu-Raddad, Laith JamalAbu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.Accrombessi, Manfred Mario KokouAcharya, DilaramAcharya, PawanAdamu, Abdu A.Adane, Akikw AwokeAdebayo, Oladimeji M.Adedoyin, Rufus AdesojiAdekanmbi, VictorAdemi, ZanfinaAdetokunboh, OlatunjiAdib, Mina G.Admasie, AmhaAdsuar, Jose C.Afanvi, Kossivi AgbelenkoAfarideh, MohsenAgarwal, GinaAggarwal, AnjuAghayan, Sargis AghastAgrawal, AnuragAgrawal, SutapaAhmadi, AlirezaAhmadi, MehdiAhmadieh, HamidAhmed, Muktar BeshirAichour, Amani NidhalAichour, IbtihelAichour, Miloud Taki EddineAkbari, Mohammad EsmaeilAkinyemiju, TomiAkseer, NadiaAl-Aly, ZiyadAl-Eyadhy, AymanAl-Mekhlafi, Hesham M.Alandab, FaresAlam, KhurshidAlam, SamiahAlam, TahiyaAlashi, AlaaAlavian, Seyed MoayedAlene, Kefyalew AddisAli, KomalAli, Syed MustafaAlijanzadeh, MehranAlizadeh-Navaei, RezaAljunid, Syed MohamedAlkerwi, Ala'aAlla, FrancoisAlsharif, UbaiAltirkawi, KhalidAlvis-Guzman, NelsonAmare, Azmeraw T.Ammar, WalidAnber, Nahla HamedAnderson, Jason A.Andrei, Catalina LilianaAndroudi, SofiaAnimut, Megbaru DebalkieAnjomshoa, MinaAnsha, Mustafa GeletoAnto, Josep M.Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.Anwari, PalwashaAppiah, Lambert TettehAppiah, Seth Christopher YawArabloo, JalalAremu, OlatundeAmlov, JohanArtaman, AlAryal, Krishna K.Asayesh, HamidAtaro, ZerihunAusloos, MarcelAvokpaho, Euripide F. G. A.Awasthi, AshishQuintanilla, Beatriz Paulina AyalaAyer, RakeshAyuk, Tanabe B.Azzopardi, Peter S.Babazadeff, ArefehBadali, HamidBadawi, AlaaBalakrishnan, KalpanaBali, Ayele GeletoBall, KylieBellew, Shoshana H.Banach, MaciejBanoub, Joseph Adel MattarBarac, AleksandraBarker-Collo, Suzanne LynBamighausen, Till WinfriedBarrero, Lope H.Basu, SanjayBaune, Bernhard T.Bazargan-Hejazi, ShahrzadBedi, NeerajBeghi, EttoreBehzadifar, MasoudBehzadifar, MeysamBejoy, YannickBekele, Bayu BegashawBekru, Fyasu TamruBelay, EzraBelay, Yilhalem AbebeBell, Michelle L.Bello, Aminu K.Bennett, Derrick A.Bensenor, Isabela M.Bergeron, GillesBerhane, AdugnawBemabe, EduardoBemstein, Robert S.Beuran, MirceaBeyranvand, TinaBhala, NeerajBhalla, AshishBhattarai, SurajBhutta, Zulfiqar A.Biadgo, BeleteBijani, AliBikbov, BorisBilano, VerBililign, NigusBin Sayeed, Muhamad ShandaatBisanzio, DonalBiswas, TuhinBjorge, ToneBlacker, Brigette F.Bleyer, ArchieBorschmann, RohanBou-Orm, Ibrahim R.Boufous, SoufianeBourne, RupertBrady, Oliver J.Brauer, MichaelBrazinova, AlexandraBreitborde, Nicholas J. K.Brenner, HermannBriko, Andrey NikolaevichBritton, GabrielleBrugha, TraolachBuchbindet, RachelleBurnett, Richard T.Busse, ReinhardButt, Zahid A.Cahill, Leah E.Cahuana-Hurtado, LuceroCampos-Nonato, Ismael R.Cardenas, RosarioCarreras, GiuliaCarrero, Juan J.Carvalho, FelixCastaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.Rivas, Jacqueline CastilloCastro, FranzCatala-Lopez, FerranCausey, KateCercy, Kelly M.Cerin, EsterChaiah, YazanChang, Hying-TiChang, Jung-ChenChang, Kai-LanCharlson, Fiona J.Chattopadhyay, AparajitaChattu, Vijay KumarChee, Miao LiCheng, Ching-YuChew, AdrienneChiang, Peggy Pei-ChiaChimed-Ochir, OdgerelChin, Ken LeeChitheer, AbdulaalChoi, Jee-Young J.Chowdhury, RajivChristensen, HanneChristopher, Devasahayam J.Chung, Sheng-ChiaCicuttini, Flavia M.Grillo, MassimoCohen, Aaron J.Collado-Mateo, DanielCooper, CyrusCooper, Owen R.Coresh, JosefCornaby, LeslieCortesi, Paolo AngeloCortinovis, MonicaCosta, MeganCousin, EwertonCriqui, Michael H.Cromwell, Elizabeth A.Cundiff, David K.Daba, Alenmeh KabetaDachew, Berihun AssefaDadi, Abel FekaduDamasceno, Alberti Antonio MouraDandona, LalitDandona, RakhiDarby, Sarah C.Dargan, Paul I.Daryani, AhmedDas Gupta, RajatDas Neves, JoseDasa, Tamirat TesfayeDash, Aditya PrasadDavitoiu, Dragos VirgilDavletov, KairatDe la Cruz-Gongora, VanessaDe la Hoz, Fernando PioDe Leo, DiegoDe Neve, Jan-WalterDegenhardt, LouisaDeiparine, SelinaDellavalle, Robert P.Demoz, Gebre TeklemariamDenova-Gutierrez, EdgarDeribe, KebedeDervenis, NikolaosDeshpande, AniruddhaJarlais, Don C. DesDessie, Getenet AyalewDeveber, Gabrielle AlineDey, SubhojitDharmaratne, Samath DhammindaDhimal, MeghnathDinberu, Mesfin TadeseDing, Eric L.Diro, Helen DeraraDjalalinia, ShirinHuyen Phoc DoDokova, KlaraDoku, David TeyeLa Doyle, KerrieDriscoll, Tim R.Dubey, ManishaDubljanin, EleonoraDuken, Eyasu EjetaDuncan, Bruce B.Duraes, Andre R.Ebert, NatalieEbrahimi, HedyehEbrahimpour, SoheilEdvardsson, DavidElfiong, AndemEggen, Anne EliseEl Bcheraoui, CharbelEl-Khatib, IadElyazar, Iqbal RfEnayati, AhmadaliEndries, Aman YesufEr, BenjaminErskine, Holly E.Eskandarieh, ShararehEsteghamati, AlirezaEstep, KaraFakhim, HamedFaramarzi, MahbobehFareed, MohammadFarid, Talha A.Farinha, Carla Sofia E. SaFarioli, AndreaFaro, AndreFarvid, Maryam S.Farzaei, Mohammad HoseinFatima, BatoolFay, Kairsten A.Fazaeli, Ali AkbarFeigin, Valery L.Feigl, Andrea B.Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-MohammadFernandes, EduardaFernandes, Joao C.Ferrara, GianninaFerrari, Alize J.Ferreira, Manuela L.Filip, IrinaFinger, Jonas DavidFischer, FlorianFoigt, Nataliya A.Foreman, Kyle J.Fukumoto, TakeshiFullman, NancyFurst, ThomasFurtado, Joao M.Futran, Neal D.Gall, SeanaGallus, SilvanGamkrelidze, AmiranGanji, MorsalehGarcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.Gardner, William NiGebre, Abadi KahsuGebremedhin, Amanuel TesfayGebremichael, Teklu GebrehiwoGelano, Tilayie FetoGeleijnse, Johanna M.Geramo, Yilma Chisha DeaGething, Peter W.Geese, Kebede EmbayeGhadimi, RezaGhadiri, KeyghobadFalavarjani, Khalil GhasemiGhasemi-Kasman, MaryamGhimire, MamataGhosh, RakeshGhoshal, Aloke GopalGiampaoli, SimonaGill, Paramjit SinghGill, Tiffany K.Gillum, Richard F.Ginawi, Ibrahim AbdelmageedGiussani, GiorgiaGnedovskaya, Elena V.Godwin, William W.Goli, SrinivasGomez-Dantes, HectorGona, Philimon N.Gopalani, Sameer ValiGoulart, Alessandra C.Grada, AymanGrams, Morgan E.Grosso, GiuseppeGugnani, Hanish ChanderGuo, YumingGupta, RahulGupta, RajeevGupta, TanushGutierrez, Reyna AlmaGutierrez-Torres, Daniela S.Haagsma, Juanita A.Habtewold, Tesfa DejenieHachinski, VladimirHafezi-Nejad, NimaHagos, Tekleberhan B.Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros TesfaHailu, Gessessew BugssaHaj-Mirzaian, ArvinHaj-Mirzaian, AryaHamadeh, Randah R.Hamidi, SamerHandal, Alexis J.Hankey, Graeme J.Liao, YuantaoHarb, Hilda L.Harikrishnan, SivadasanpillaiHaro, Josep MariaHassankhani, HadiHassen, Hamid YimamHavmoeller, RasmusHawley, Caitlin N.Hay, Simon I.Hedayatizadeh-Omran, AkbarHeibati, BehzadHeidari, BehnamHeidari, MohsenHendrie, DeliaHenok, AndualemHeredia-Pi, IleanaHerteliu, ClaudiuHeydarpour, FatemehHeydarpour, SousanHibstu, Desalegn T.Higazi, Tarig B.Hilawe, Esayas HaregotHoek, Hans W.Hoffiman, Howard J.Hole, Michael K.Rad, Enayatollah HomaieHoogar, PraveenHosgood, H. DeanHosseini, Seyed MostafaHosseinzadeh, MehdiHostiuc, MihaelaHostiuc, SorinHoy, Damian G.Hsairi, MohamedHsiao, ThomasHu, GuoqingHa, HowardHuang, John J.Hussen, Mamusha AmanHuynh, Chantal K.Iburg, Kim MoesgaardIkeda, NayuIlesanmi, Olayinka StephenIqbal, UsmanIrvani, Seyed Sina NaghibiIrvine, Caleb Mackay SalpeterIslam, Sheikh Mohammed SharifulIslami, FarhadJackson, Maria D.Jacobsen, Kathryn H.Jahangiry, LeilaJahanmehr, NaderJain, Sudhir KumarJakovljevic, MihajloJames, Spencer L.Jassal, Simerjot K.Jayatilleke, Achala UpendraJeemon, PanniyammakalJha, Ravi PrakashJha, VivekanandJi, John S.Jonas, Jost B.Jonnagaddala, JitendraShushtari, Zahra JorjoranJoshi, AnkurJozwiak, Jacek JerzyJurisson, MikkKabir, ZubairKahsay, AmahaKalani, RizwanKanchan, TanujKant, SuryaKar, ChittaranjanKarami, ManoochehrMatin, Behzad KaramiKarch, AndreKarema, CorineKarimi, NargesKarimi, Seyed M.Kasaeian, AmirKassa, Dessalegn H.Kassa, Getachew MulluKassa, Tesfaye DessaleKassebaum, Nicholas J.Katikireddi, Srinivasa VittalKaul, AnilKawakami, NoritoKazemi, ZhilaKaryani, Ali KazemiKefale, Adane TeshomeKeiyoro, Peter NjengaKemp, Grant RodgersKengne, Andre PascalKeren, AndreKesavachandran, Chandrasekharan NairKhader, Yousef SalehKhafaei, BehzadKhafaie, Morteza AbdullatifKhajavi, AlirezaKhalid, NaumanKhalil, Ibrahim A.Khan, GulfarazKhan, Muhammad ShahzebKhan, Muhammad AliKhang, Young-HoKhater, Mona M.Khazaei, MohammadKhazaie, HabibolahKhoja, Abdullah T.Khosravi, ArdeshirKhosravi, Mohammad HosseinKiadaliri, Aliasghar A.Kiirithio, Daniel N.Kim, Cho-IlKim, DanielKim, Young-EunKim, Yun JinKimokoti, Ruth W.Kinfh, YohannesKisa, AdnanKissimova-Skarbek, KatarzynaKivimaki, MikaKnibbs, Luke D.Knudsen, Ann Kristin SkrindoKochhar, SonaliKokubo, YoshihiroKolola, TufaKopec, Jacek A.Kosen, SoewartaKoul, Parvaiz A.Koyanagi, AiKravchenko, Michael A.Krishan, KewalKrohn, Kristopher J.Kromhout, HansDefo, Barthelemy KuateBicer, Burcu KucukKumar, G. AnilKumar, ManasiKuzin, IgorKyu, Hmwe HmweLachat, CarlLad, Deepesh P.Lad, Sheetal D.Lafranconi, AlessandraLalloo, RatilalLallukka, TeaLami, Faris HasanLang, Justin J.Lansingh, Van C.Larson, Samantha LeighLatifi, ArmanLazarus, Jeffrey V.Lee, Paul H.Leigh, JamesLeili, MostafaLeshargie, Chem TesemaLeung, JanniLevi, MiriamLewycka, SoniaLi, ShanshanLi, YichongLiang, JuanLiang, XiaofengLian, YuLiben, Misgan LegesseLim, Lee-LingLinn, ShaiLiu, ShiweiLodha, RakeshLogroscino, GiancarloLopez, Alan D.Lorkowski, StefanLotufo, Paulo A.Lozano, RafaelLucas, Tim C. D.Lunevicius, RaimundasMa, StefanMacarayan, Erlyn Rachele KingMachado, Isis EloahMadotto, FabianaMai, Hue ThiMajdan, MarekMajdzadeh, RezaMajeed, AzeemMalekzadeh, RezaMalta, Deborah CarvalhoMamum, Abdullah A.Manda, Ana-LauraManguerra, HelenaMansournia, Mohammad AliMantovani, Lorenzo GiovanniMaravilla, Joemer C.Marcenes, WagnerMarks, AshleyMartin, Randall V.Martins, Sheila C.Martins-Melo, Francisco RogerlandioMarz, WinfriedMarzan, Melvin B.Massenburg, Benjamin BallardMathur, Manu RaiMathur, PrashantMatsushita, KunihiroMaulik, Pallab K.Mazidi, MohsenMcAlinden, CohnMcGrath, John J.McKee, MartinMehrotra, RaviMehta, Kala M.Mehta, VarshilMeier, ToniMekonnen, Fantahun AyenewMelaku, Yohannes A.Melese, AddisuMelku, MulugetaMemiah, Peter T. N.Memish, Ziad A.Mendoza, WalterMengistu, Desalegn TadeseMensah, George A.Mensink, Gert B. M.Mereta, Seid TikuMeretola, AtteMeretoja, Tuomo J.Mestrovic, TomislavMezgebe, Haftay BerhaneMiazgowski, BartoszMiazgowski, TomaszMillear, Anoushka I.Miller, Ted R.Miller-Petrie, Molly KatherineMini, G. K.Mirarefin, MojdeMirica, AndreeaMirrakhimov, Erkin M.Misganaw, Awoke TemesgenMitiku, HabtamuMoazen, BabakMohajer, BahramMohammad, Karzan AbdulmuhsinMohammadi, MoslemMohammadifard, NoushinMohammadnia-Afrouzi, MousaMohammed, ShafiuMohebi, FarnamMokdad, Ali H.Molokhia, MariamMomeniha, FatemehMonasta, LorenzoMoodley, YoshanMoradi, GhobadMoradi-Lakeh, MaziarMoradinazar, MehdiMoraga, PaulaMorawska, LidiaMorgado-Da-Costa, JoanaMorrison, Shane DouglasMoschos, Marilita M.Mouodi, SiminMousavi, Seyyed MeysamMozaffarian, DariushMruts, Kalayu BrhaneMuche, Achenef AsmamawMuchie, Kindle FentahunMueller, Ulrich OttoMuhammed, Oumer SadaMukhopadhyay, SatinathMuller, KateMusa, Kamarul ImranMustafa, GhulamNabhan, Ashraf F.Naghavi, MohsenNaheed, AliyaNahvijou, AzinNaik, GurudattaNaik, NitishNajafi, FaridNangia, VinayNansseu, Jobert RichieNascimento, Bruno RamosNeal, BruceNeamati, NahidNegoi, Iona T.Negoi, Ruxandra IrinaNeupane, SubasNewton, Charles Richard JamesNgunjiri, Josephine V.Anh Quynh NguyenNguyen, GrantHa Thu NguyenHuong Lan Thi NguyenHuong Thanh NguyenMinh NguyenNam Ba NguyenNichols, EmmaNie, JingNingrum, Dina Nur AnggrainiNirayo, Yirga LegesseNishi, NobuoNixon, Molly R.Nojomi, MarziehNomura, ShuheiNorheim, Ole F.Noroozi, MehdiNorrving, BoNoubiap, Jean JacquesNouri, Hamid RezaShiadeh, Malihe NourollahpourNowroozi, Mohammad RezaNsoesie, Elaine O.Nyasulu, Peter S.Obermeyer, Carla M.Odell, Christopher M.Ofori-Asenso, RichardOgbo, Felix AkpojeneOh, In-HwanOladimeji, OlanrewajuOlagunju, Andrew T.Olagunju, Tinuke O.Olivares, Pedro R.Olsen, Helen ElizabethOlusanya, Bolajoko OlubukunolaOlusanya, Jacob OlusegunOng, Kanyin L.Ong, Sok KingOren, EyalOrpana, Heather M.Ortiz, AlbertoOta, ErikaOtstavnov, Stanislav S.Overland, SimonOwolabi, Mayowa OjoPacella, Mahesh P. 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Issue Date
10-11월-2018
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
LANCET, v.392, no.10159, pp.1923 - 1994
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
LANCET
Volume
392
Number
10159
Start Page
1923
End Page
1994
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/126254
DOI
10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6
ISSN
0140-6736
Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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의과대학 (의학과)
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