Effect of Seawater Temperature Increase on the Occurrence of Coastal Vibrio vulnificus Cases: Korean National Surveillance Data from 2003 to 2016

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to assess the association between seawater temperature and Vibrio vulnificus cases in coastal regions of Korea. All V. vulnificus cases in coastal regions notified to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency between 2003 and 2016 were included in this work. Data for seawater temperature on the south, west, and east coast during the study period were provided by the Korea Oceanographic Data Center of the National Institute of Fisheries Science. We used a generalized additive model and performed a negative binomial regression analysis. In total, 383 notified cases were analyzed (west coast: 196 cases, south coast: 162, and east coast: 25). The maximum seawater temperature was the most significant predictor of V. vulnificus cases on the south and east coasts (relative risk according to the 1 degrees C increase in seawater temperature (RR) = 1.35 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-1.53) and 1.30 (95% CI: 1.06-1.59), respectively). However, the mean seawater temperature was the most significant predictor for the west coast (RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.20-1.51)). These results indicate that continuously monitoring seawater temperature increase in each coastal area is crucial to prevent V. vulnificus infections and protect high-risk groups, such as persons with liver disease.