Machine Learning-Based Two-Stage Data Selection Scheme for Long-Term Influenza Forecasting

Abstract

One popular strategy to reduce the enormous number of illnesses and deaths from a seasonal influenza pandemic is to obtain the influenza vaccine on time. Usually, vaccine production preparation must be done at least six months in advance, and accurate long-term influenza forecasting is essential for this. Although diverse machine learning models have been proposed for influenza forecasting, they focus on short-term forecasting, and their performance is too dependent on input variables. For a country's longterm influenza forecasting, typical surveillance data are known to be more effective than diverse external data on the Internet. We propose a two-stage data selection scheme for worldwide surveillance data to construct a longterm forecasting model for influenza in the target country. In the first stage, using a simple forecasting model based on the country's surveillance data, we measured the change in performance by adding surveillance data from other countries, shifted by up to 52 weeks. In the second stage, for each set of surveillance data sorted by accuracy, we incrementally added data as input if the data have a positive effect on the performance of the forecasting model in the first stage. Using the selected surveillance data, we trained a new longterm forecasting model for influenza and perform influenza forecasting for the target country. We conducted extensive experiments using six machine learning models for the three target countries to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. We report some of the results.