Identifying the Drought Impact Factors and Developing Drought Scenarios Using the DSD Model

Abstract

Droughts have become increasingly severe and frequent due to climate change. Droughts cause water scarcity and various socio-economic issues. Therefore, it is necessary to address drought conditions water resource management policies. The drought characteristics within each administrative division need to be closely analyzed to support effective policy-making. A drought impact factor analysis using a drought scenario development (DSD) model, is presented in this study. The DSD model identifies the drought impact factor for each administrative division through the relationship between various hydrometeorological factors and drought indices, and constructs a drought scenario. The proposed model was applied to 167 administrative divisions in South Korea. Hydrological factors significantly impact droughts than meteorological factors in South Korea. Identified drought impact factors are analyzed based on spatio-temporal variability to recognize the features in various aspects of droughts. Changes in water demand and severe drought periods were considered for temporal variability. Administrative divisions were grouped into four zones based on the type of water demand, and zonally analyzed to examine spatial variability. Finally, a drought scenario based on the identified drought impact factor was constructed to present the probable drought conditions. Components of the drought scenario represent the constitution of water resources within an administrative division, and high and low levels of each component were combined. The constructed drought scenarios facilitate effective policy-making for managing water resources.