Elucidating the Local Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N6 in the Republic of Korea by Integrating Phylogenetic Information

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus is one of the most virulent and infectious pathogens of poultry. As a response to HPAI epidemics, veterinary authorities implement preemptive depopulation as a controlling strategy. However, mass culling within a uniform radius of the infection site can result in unnecessary depopulation. Therefore, it is useful to quantify the transmission distance from infected premises (IPs) before determining the optimal area for preemptive depopulation. Accordingly, we analyzed the transmission risk within spatiotemporal clusters of IPs using transmission kernel estimates derived from phylogenetic clustering information on 311 HPAI H5N6 IPs identified during the 2016-2017 epidemic, Republic of Korea. Subsequently, we explored the impact of varying the culling radius on the local transmission of HPAI given the transmission risk estimates. The domestic duck farm density was positively associated with higher transmissibility. Ring culling over a radius of 3 km may be effective for areas with high dense duck holdings, but this approach does not appear to significantly reduce the risk for local transmission in areas with chicken farms. This study provides the first estimation of the local transmission dynamics of HPAI in the Republic of Korea as well as insight into determining an effective ring culling radius.