Detailed Information

Cited 0 time in webofscience Cited 0 time in scopus
Metadata Downloads

Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038

Authors
Kwak, KyeongminCho, Sung-ilPaek, Domyung
Issue Date
6월-2021
Publisher
MDPI
Keywords
NORDPRED; Poisson regression; age-period-cohort model; asbestos; malignant mesothelioma; mesothelioma; prediction model
Citation
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, v.18, no.12
Indexed
SCIE
SSCI
SCOPUS
Journal Title
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume
18
Number
12
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/137333
DOI
10.3390/ijerph18126614
ISSN
1661-7827
Abstract
Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019-2038) in South Korea using Moller's age-period-cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted that the crude incidence rate would increase sharply in men and slowly in women. Despite the sex discrepancy in the rate of increase, the incidence rate for both sexes is expected to continue increasing until 2038. In the Poisson model, the crude incidence rate was predicted to increase continuously until 2038, and far more cases of MM were predicted to occur compared with the results of the APC model. When compared with actual incidence data, the APC model was deemed more suitable than the Poisson model. The APC model predicted a continuous increase over the next 20 years with no peak, suggesting that the incidence of MM will continue to rise far into the future.
Files in This Item
There are no files associated with this item.
Appears in
Collections
College of Medicine > Department of Medical Science > 1. Journal Articles

qrcode

Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Altmetrics

Total Views & Downloads

BROWSE