Association of Preterm Birth with Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Salivary Gland Disease: Machine Learning Analysis Using National Health Insurance Data

Abstract

This study employs machine learning and population data for testing the associations of preterm birth with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), salivary gland disease, socioeconomic status and medication history, including proton pump inhibitors. The source of population-based retrospective cohort data was the Korea National Health Insurance Service claims data for all women aged 25-40 years and who experience their first childbirths as singleton pregnancy during 2015 to 2017 (402,092 women). These participants were divided into the Ulcerative Colitis (UC) Group (1782 women), the Crohn Group (1954 women) and the Non-IBD Group (398,219 women). For each group, the dependent variable was preterm birth during 2015-2017, and 51 independent variables were included. Random forest variable importance was employed for investigating the main factors of preterm birth and testing its associations with salivary gland disease, socioeconomic status and medication history for each group. The proportion of preterm birth was higher for the UC Group and the Non-IBD Group than for the Crohn Group: 7.86%, 7.17% vs. 6.76%. Based on random forest variable importance, salivary gland disease was a top 10 determinant for the prediction of preterm birth for the UC Group, but this was not the case for the Crohn Group or the Non-IBD Group. The top 5 variables of preterm birth for the UC Group during 2015-2017 were socioeconomic status (8.58), age (8.00), proton pump inhibitors (2.35), progesterone (2.13) and salivary gland disease in 2014 (1.72). In conclusion, preterm birth has strong associations with ulcerative colitis, salivary gland disease, socioeconomic status and medication history including proton pump inhibitors.