Clinical characteristics of neonatal cholestasis in a tertiary hospital and the development of a novel prediction model for mortality

Abstract

Background: Few studies have described the aetiologies of neonatal cholestasis, and the overall neonatal cholestasis-related mortality (NCM) rate is unclear. We investigated the aetiology and outcome of neonatal cholestasis in a tertiary hospital and developed an NCM prediction model for these patients. Methods: Patients aged <100 days with serum direct bilirubin (DB) levels of >1.0 mg/dL were retrospectively screened. Diagnostic and laboratory data during the 8-week follow-up period after enrolment between 2005 and 2020 were extracted digitally, and medical charts were reviewed manually by clinicians. Logistic regression was used to derive a prediction model for the 1-year mortality outcome of neonatal cholestasis, and performance evaluation and external validation were conducted for the NCM prediction model. Findings: We enrolled 4028 neonates with DB of >1.0 mg/dL at least once. Prematurity and birth injury (35.4%), complex heart anomalies (18.6%), liver diseases (11.4%), and gastrointestinal anomalies (9.2%) were the most common aetiologies; 398 (9.9%) patients died before one year of age. The peak value of DB was positively correlated to the 1-year mortality rate. In the multivariate analysis, simple laboratory indices, including platelet, prothrombin time, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, direct bilirubin, creatinine, and C-reactive protein, were independent predictors of 1-year mortality outcome of complete-case subjects. Using these laboratory indices, a logistic regression-based NCM prediction model was constructed. It showed acceptable performances on discrimination (area under the curve, 0.916), calibration (slope, 1.04) and Brier scoring (0.072). The external validation of the sample (n = 920) from two other centres also revealed similar performance profiles of the NCM model. Interpretation: Various aetiologies of neonatal cholestasis were identified in a tertiary hospital, resulting in unfavourable outcomes of a large proportion. The NCM prediction model may have the potential to help clinicians to be aware of high-risk neonatal cholestasis. © 2022 The Author(s)