Assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the potential risk of wood decay in Korea

Abstract

Future climate change due to global warming could increase the decay risk of wood, which thereby increases the vulnerability of wood buildings to fungal decay. This study intended to understand changes in the potential risk of wood decay due to climate change in Korea and to identify the manner in which climate change presumably influences wooden cultural heritages (WCHs). Scheffer's climate index values for estimating the decay risk of wood exposed outdoors aboveground were calculated using historical climate data (1987–2016) and future climate scenarios (2021–2100). The study employed representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios to project the potential risk of wood decay in Korea until the end of 21th century. The results demonstrate that climate change will significantly increase the potential decay risk and resultant vulnerability of WCHs to fungal decay by the end of the century, even under RCP 4.5, which is a scenario with reductions. This apparent increase in threat due to climate change denotes that various measures or strategies, such as more frequent inspection and more robust maintenance, should be employed to reduce the vulnerability of WCHs to fungal decay due to climate change. © 2022