기후변화에 따른 말라리아 잠재 발생 가능성 분석: 베네수엘라를 중심으로

Abstract

Since climate change has become a serious problem due to continuous industrialization, abnormal phenomena (such as global warming) are being intensified. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the serious problems of climate impacts that include natural disaster, water scarcity, loss of fauna and flora, and more. Vector‐borne diseases, such as malaria, are also being intensified since the change in temperature influences the possible habitat of the disease‐provoking vectors. Malaria is a serious health problem globally and the prediction of its changed distribution is necessary for its prevention. Malaria in South America had been eradicated years ago, but nowadays outbreaks have been increasing again, especially in Venezuela, perhaps associated with its economic crisis. We arranged climate data and geological data for the past, present, and future of Venezuela to compare and predict future malaria distribution due to climate change using Maxent software, a widely used Species Distribution Model. According to the prediction for potential future malaria distribution, if climate change increases continuously, malaria risk will also increase and expand into the highly populated region in northern Venezuela where more than 60% of Venezuela’s population lives. The Falcon and Zulia districts are especially exposed to the highest malaria risk, with an increase of approximately 12% and 23% respectively. Thus strengthening of health policies and decisions, especially concentrated in the Zulia and Falcon districts, is urgently needed.