기후변화에 따른 멸종위기 침엽수종 분포 변화 예측

Abstract

The objective of this study was to predict the potential distribution change for vulnerable and endangered tree species (Picea jezoensis, Abies koreana, Abies nephrolepis, and Pinus pumila) under climate change. To this end, HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), the Korea-specific forest cover distribution model based on hydrological and thermal indices, was used to predict the potential spatio-temporal distribution changes in tree species. As a result, the optimal habitat of vulnerable and endangered tree species (Picea jezoensis, Abies koreana, Abies nephrolepis, and Pinus pumila) under the potential impact of climate change is expected to shrink rapidly and is going to appear only in Gangwon Province in the future. Also, comparing the distribution range of tree species, Picea jezoensis has the largest distribution range compared to the other tree species. On the other hand, the optimal habitat of Pinus pumila is the smallest. This means that physical environment for Pinus pumila tends to be rapidly reduced. These results show that these tree species are facing a great risk due to climate change, and this is expected to be an important input or tool for decision-making with respect to establishing management and conservation measures to reduce the negative impact of climate change.