A comparison of mortality projection by different time period in time series

Abstract

In Korea, as the mortality rate improves in a shorter period of time than in developed countries, it is important to consider the selection of the time series as well as the model selection in the mortality projection. Therefore, this study proposed a method using the multiple regression model in respect to the selection of the time series period. In addition, we investigate the problems that arise when various time series are used based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the kinds of LC model along with Lee-Miller (LM) and Booth-Maindonald-Smith (BMS), and the non-parametric model such as functional data model (FDM) and Coherent FDM, and examine differences in the age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy projection. Based on the analysis results, the age-specific mortality rate and predicted life expectancy of men and women are calculated for the year 2030 for each model. We also compare the mortality rate and life expectancy of the next generation provided by Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS).