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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Authors
Vos, TheoAbajobir, Amanuel AlemuAbbafati, CristianaAbbas, Kaja M.Abate, Kalkidan HassenAbd-Allah, FoadAbdulle, Abdishakur M.Abebo, Teshome AbukaAbera, Semaw FeredeAboyans, VictorAbu-Raddad, Laith J.Ackerman, Ilana N.Adamu, Abdu AbdullahiAdetokunboh, OlatunjiAfarideh, MohsenAfshin, AshkanAgarwal, Sanjay KumarAggarwal, RakeshAgrawal, AnuragAgrawal, SutapaKiadaliri, Aliasghar AhmadAhmadieh, HamidAhmed, Muktar BeshirAichour, Amani NidhalAichour, IbtihelAichour, Miloud Taki EddineAiyar, SnehaAkinyemi, Rufus OlusolaAkseer, NadiaAl Lami, Faris HasanAlahdab, FaresAl-Aly, ZiyadAlam, KhurshidAlam, NooreAlam, TahiyaAlasfoor, DeenaAlene, Kefyalew AddisAli, RaghibAlizadeh-Navaei, RezaAlkerwi, Ala'aAlla, FrancoisAllebeck, PeterAllen, ChristineAl-Maskari, FatmaAl-Raddadi, RajaaAlsharif, UbaiAlsowaidi, ShirinaAltirkawi, Khalid A.Amare, Azmeraw T.Amini, ErfanAmmar, WalidAmoako, Yaw AmpemAndersen, Hjalte H.Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.Anwari, PalwashaArnlov, JohanArtaman, AlAryal, Krishna KumarAsayesh, HamidAsgedom, Solomon W.Assadi, RezaAtey, Tesfay MehariAtnafu, Niguse TadeleAtre, Sachin R.Avila-Burgos, LeticiaAvokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. ArthurAwasthi, AshishAyala Quintanilla, Beatriz PaulinaSaleem, Huda Omer BaBacha, UmarBadawi, AlaaBalakrishnan, KalpanaBanerjee, AmitavaBannick, Marlena S.Barac, AleksandraBarber, Ryan M.Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.Baernighausen, TillBarquera, SimonBarregard, LarsBarrero, Lope H.Basu, SanjayBattista, BobBattle, Katherine E.Baune, Bernhard T.Bazargan-Hejazi, ShahrzadBeardsley, JustinBedi, NeerajBeghi, EttoreBejot, YannickBekele, Bayu BegashawBell, Michelle L.Bennett, Derrick A.Bensenor, Isabela M.Benson, JenniferBerhane, AdugnawBerhe, Derbew FikaduBernabe, EduardoBetsu, Balem DemtsuBeuran, MirceaBeyene, Addisu ShunuBhala, NeerajBhansali, AnilBhatt, SamirBhutta, Zulfiqar A.Biadgilign, SibhatuBienhoff, KellyBikbov, BorisBirungi, CharlesBiryukov, StanBisanzio, DonalBizuayehu, Habtamu MellieBoneya, Dube JaraBoufous, SoufianeBourne, Rupert R. A.Brazinova, AlexandraBrugha, Traolach S.Buchbinder, RachelleBulto, Lemma Negesa BultoBumgarner, Blair R.Butt, Zahid A.Cahuana-Hurtado, LuceroCameron, EwanCar, MateCarabin, HeleneCarapetis, Jonathan R.Cardenas, RosarioCarpenter, David O.Carrero, Juan JesusCarter, AustinCarvalho, FelixCasey, Daniel C.Caso, ValeriaCastaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.Castle, Chris D.Catala-Lopez, FerranChang, Hsing-YiChang, Jung-ChenCharlson, Fiona J.Chen, HongleiChibalabala, MirriamChibueze, Chioma EzinneChisumpa, Vesper HichilombweChitheer, Abdulaal A.Christopher, Devasahayam JesudasCiobanu, Liliana G.Cirillo, MassimoColombara, DannyCooper, CyrusCortesi, Paolo AngeloCriqui, Michael H.Crump, John A.Dadi, Abel FekaduDalal, KoustuvDandona, LalitDandona, Rakhidas Neves, JoseDavitoiu, Dragos V.de Courten, BarboraDe Leo, DiegoDegenhardt, LouisaDeiparine, SelinaDellavalle, Robert P.Deribe, KebedeDes Jarlais, Don C.Dey, SubhojitDharmaratne, Samath D.Dhillon, Preet KaurDicker, DanielDing, Eric L.Djalalinia, ShirinHuyen Phuc DoDorsey, E. RayBender dos Santos, Kadine PriscilaDouwes-Schultz, DirkDoyle, Kerrie E.Driscoll, Tim R.Dubey, ManishaDuncan, Bruce BartholowEl-Khatib, Ziad ZiadEllerstrand, JerishaEnayati, AhmadaliEndries, Aman YesufErmakov, Sergey PetrovichErskine, Holly E.Eshrati, BabakEskandarieh, ShararehEsteghamati, AlirezaEstep, KaraFanuel, Fanuel Belayneh BekeleSa Farinha, Carla Sofia eFaro, AndreFarzadfar, FarshadFazeli, Mir SohailFeigin, Valery L.Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-MohammadFernandes, Joao C.Ferrari, Alize J.Feyissa, Tesfaye RegassaFilip, IrinaFischer, FlorianFitzmaurice, ChristinaFlaxman, Abraham D.Flor, Luisa SorioFoigt, NataliyaForeman, Kyle J.Franklin, Richard C.Fullman, NancyFurst, ThomasFurtado, Joao M.Futran, Neal D.Gakidou, EmmanuelaGanji, MorsalehGarcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.Gebre, TeshomeGebrehiwot, Tsegaye TeweldeGeleto, AyeleGemechu, Bikila LenchaGesesew, Hailay AbrhaGething, Peter W.Ghajar, AlirezaGibney, Katherine B.Gill, Paramjit SinghGillum, Richard F.Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem MohamedGiref, Ababi ZergayGishu, Melkamu DedefoGiussani, GiorgiaGodwin, William W.Gold, Audra L.Goldberg, Ellen M.Gona, Philimon N.Goodridge, AmadorGopalani, Sameer ValiGoto, AtsushiGoulart, Alessandra CarvalhoGriswold, MaxGugnani, Harish ChanderGupta, RahulGupta, RajeevGupta, TanushGupta, VipinHafezi-Nejad, NimaHailu, Alemayehu DesalegneHailu, Gessessew BugssaHamadeh, Randah RibhiHamidi, SamerHandal, Alexis J.Hankey, Graeme J.Hao, YuantaoHarb, Hilda L.Hareri, Habtamu AberaMaria Haro, JosepHarvey, JamesHassanvand, Mohammad SadeghHavmoeller, RasmusHawley, CaitlinHay, Roderick J.Hay, Simon I.Henry, Nathaniel J.Beatriz Heredia-Pi, IleanaHeydarpour, PouriaHoek, Hans W.Hoffman, Howard J.Horita, NobuyukiHosgood, H. DeanHostiuc, SorinHotez, Peter J.Hoy, Damian G.Htet, Aung SoeHu, GuoqingHuang, HsiangHuynh, ChantalIburg, Kim MoesgaardIgumbor, Ehimario UcheIkeda, ChadIrvine, Caleb Mackay SalpeterJacobsen, Kathryn H.Jahanmehr, NaderJakovljevic, Mihajlo B.Jassal, Simerjot K.Javanbakht, MehdiJayaraman, Sudha P.Jeemon, PanniyammakalJensen, Paul N.Jha, VivekanandJiang, GuohongJohn, DennyJohnson, Catherine O.Johnson, Sarah CharlotteJonas, Jost B.Jurisson, MikkKabir, ZubairKadel, RajendraKahsay, AmahaKamal, RitulKan, HaidongKaram, Nadim E.Karch, AndreKarema, Corine KakiziKasaeian, AmirKassa, Getachew MulluKassaw, Nigussie AssefaKassebaum, Nicholas J.Kastor, AnshulKatikireddi, Srinivasa VittalKaul, AnilKawakami, NoritoKeiyoro, Peter NjengaKengne, Andre PascalKeren, AndreKhader, Yousef SalehKhalil, Ibrahim A.Khan, Ejaz AhmadKhang, Young-HoKhosravi, ArdeshirKhubchandani, JagdishKieling, ChristianKim, DanielKim, PaulineKim, Yun JinKimokoti, Ruth W.Kinfu, YohannesKisa, AdnanKissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A.Kivimaki, MikaKnudsen, Ann KristinKokubo, YoshihiroKolte, DhavalKopec, Jacek A.Kosen, SoewartaKoul, Parvaiz A.Koyanagi, AiKravchenko, MichaelKrishnaswami, SanjayKrohn, Kristopher J.Defo, Barthelemy KuateBicer, Burcu KucukKumar, G. AnilKumar, PushpendraKumar, SanjivKyu, Hmwe H.Lal, Dharmesh KumarLalloo, RatilalLambert, NkurunzizaLan, QingLarsson, AndersLavados, Pablo M.Leasher, Janet L.Lee, Jong-TaeLee, Paul H.Leigh, JamesLeshargie, Cheru TesemaLeung, JanniLeung, RickyLevi, MiriamLi, YichongLi, YongmeiLi Kappe, DaryaLiang, XiaofengLiben, Misgan LegesseLim, Stephen S.Linn, ShaiLiu, AngelaLiu, Patrick Y.Liu, ShiweiLiu, YangLodha, RakeshLogroscino, GiancarloLondon, Stephanie J.Looker, Katharine J.Lopez, Alan D.Lorkowski, StefanLotufo, Paulo A.Low, NicolaLozano, RafaelLucas, Timothy C. D.Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle KingAbd El Razek, Hassan MagdyAbd El Razek, Mohammed MagdyMahdavi, MahdiMajdan, MarekMajdzadeh, RezaMajeed, AzeemMalekzadeh, RezaMalhotra, RajeshMalta, Deborah CarvalhoMamun, Abdullah A.Manguerra, HelenaManhertz, TrehMantilla, AnaMantovani, Lorenzo G.Mapoma, Chabila C.Marczak, Laurie B.Martinez-Raga, JoseMartins-Melo, Francisco RogerlandioMartopullo, IraMaerz, WinfriedMathur, Manu RajMazidi, MohsenMcAlinden, ColmMcGaughey, MadelineMcGrath, John J.Mckee, MartinMcNellan, ClaireMehata, SureshMehndiratta, Man MohanMekonnen, Tefera ChaneMemiah, PeterMemish, Ziad A.Mendoza, WalterMengistie, Mubarek AberaMengistu, Desalegn TadeseMensah, George A.Meretoja, AtteMeretoja, Tuomo J.Mezgebe, Haftay BerhaneMicha, RenataMillear, AnoushkaMiller, Ted R.Mills, Edward J.Mirarefin, MojdeMirrakhimov, Erkin M.Misganaw, AwokeMishra, Shiva RajMitchell, Philip B.Mohammad, Karzan AbdulmuhsinMohammadi, AlirezaMohammed, Kedir EndrisMohammed, ShafiuMohanty, Sanjay K.Mokdad, Ali H.Mollenkopf, Sarah K.Monasta, LorenzoMontanez Hernandez, JulioMontico, MarcellaMoradi-Lakeh, MaziarMoraga, PaulaMori, RintaroMorozoff, ChloeMorrison, Shane D.Moses, MarkMountjoy-Venning, CliffMruts, Kalayu BirhaneMueller, Ulrich O.Muller, KateMurdoch, Michele E.Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata SatyanarayanaMusa, Kamarul ImranNachega, Jean B.Nagel, GabrieleNaghavi, MohsenNaheed, AliyaNaidoo, Kovin S.Naldi, LuigiNangia, VinayNatarajan, GopalakrishnanNegasa, Dumessa EdessaNegoi, IonutNegoi, Ruxandra IrinaNewton, Charles R.Ngunjiri, Josephine WanjikuCuong Tat NguyenNguyen, GrantNguyen, MinhQuyen Le NguyenTrang Huyen NguyenNichols, EmmaNingrum, Dina Nur AnggrainiNolte, SandraVuong Minh NongNorrving, BoNoubiap, Jean Jacques N.O'Donnell, Martin J.Ogbo, Felix AkpojeneOh, In-HwanOkoro, AnselmOladimeji, OlanrewajuOlagunju, Andrew ToyinOlagunju, Tinuke OluwasefunmiOlsen, Helen E.Olusanya, Bolajoko OlubukunolaOlusanya, Jacob OlusegunOng, KanyinOpio, John NelsonOren, EyalOrtiz, AlbertoOsgood-Zimmerman, AaronOsman, MajdiOwolabi, Mayowa O.Mahesh, P. A.Pacella, Rosana E.Pana, AdrianPanda, Basant KumarPapachristou, ChristinaPark, Eun-KeeParry, Charles D.Parsaeian, MahboubehPatten, Scott B.Patton, George C.Paulson, KatherinePearce, NeilPereira, David M.Perico, NorbertoPesudovs, KonradPeterson, Carrie BethPetzold, MaxPhillips, Michael RobertPigott, David M.Pillay, Julian DavidPinho, ChristinePlass, DietrichPletcher, Martin A.Popova, SvetlanaPoulton, Richie G.Pourmalek, FarshadPrabhakaran, DorairajPrasad, NarayanPrasad, Noela M.Purcell, CarrieQorbani, MostafaQuansah, ReginaldRabiee, Rynaz H. S.Radfar, AmirRafay, AnwarRahimi, KazemRahimi-Movaghar, AfarinRahimi-Movaghar, VafaRahman, MahfuzarRahman, Mohammad Hifz UrRai, Rajesh KumarRajsic, SasaRam, UshaRanabhat, Chhabi LalRankin, ZaneRao, Paturi VishnupriyaRao, Puja C.Rawaf, SalmanRay, Sarah E.Reiner, Robert C.Reinig, NikolasReitsma, Marissa B.Remuzzi, GiuseppeRenzaho, Andre M. N.Resnikoff, SergeRezaei, SatarRibeiro, Antonio L.Ronfani, LucaRoshandel, GholamrezaRoth, Gregory A.Roy, AmbujRubagotti, EnricoRuhago, George MugambageSaadat, SoheilSadat, NafisSafdarian, MahdiSafi, SareSafiri, SaeidSagar, RajeshSahathevan, RameshSalama, JosephSalomon, Joshua A.Salvi, Sundeep SantoshSamy, Abdallah M.Sanabria, Juan R.Santomauro, DamianSantos, Itamar S.Santos, Joao VascoMilicevic, Milena M. SantricSartorius, BennSatpathy, MaheswarSawhney, MonikaSaxena, SoniaSchmidt, Maria InesSchneider, Ione J. C.Schoettker, BenSchwebel, David C.Schwendicke, FalkSeedat, SorayaSepanlou, Sadaf G.Servan-Mori, Edson E.Setegn, TesfayeShackelford, Katya AnneShaheen, AmiraShaikh, Masood AliShamsipour, MansourIslam, Sheikh Mohammed SharifulSharma, JayendraSharma, RajeshShe, JunShi, PeilinShields, ChloeShigematsu, MikaShinohara, YukitoShiri, RahmanShirkoohi, RezaShirude, ShreyaShishani, KawkabShrime, Mark G.Sibai, Abla MehioSigfusdottir, Inga DoraSantos Silva, Diego AugustoSilva, Joao PedroAlves Silveira, Dayane GabrieleSingh, Jasvinder A.Singh, Narinder PalSinha, Dhirendra NarainSkiadaresi, EiriniSkirbekk, VegardSlepak, Erica LeighSligar, AmberSmith, David L.Smith, MariSobaih, Badr H. A.Sobngwi, EugeneSorensen, Reed J. D.Moraes Sousa, Tatiane CristinaSposato, Luciano A.Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.Srinivasan, VinayStanaway, Jeffrey D.Stathopoulou, VasilikiSteel, NicholasStein, Dan J.Stein, Murray B.Steiner, CaitlynSteiner, Timothy J.Steinke, SabineStokes, Mark AndrewStovner, Lars JacobStrub, BryanSubart, MichelleSufiyan, Muawiyyah BabaleAbdulkader, Rizwan SuliankatchiSunguya, Bruno F.Sur, Patrick J.Swaminathan, SoumyaSykes, Bryan L.Sylte, Dillon O.Tabares-Seisdedos, RafaelTaffere, Getachew RedaeTakala, Jukka S.Tandon, NikhilTavakkoli, MohammadTaveira, NunoTaylor, Hugh R.Tehrani-Banihashemi, ArashTekelab, TesfalidetShifa, Girma TemamTerkawi, Abdullah SuliemanTesfaye, Dawit JemberTesssema, BelayThamsuwan, OrnwipaThomas, Katie E.Thrift, Amanda G.Tiruye, Tenaw YimerTobe-Gai, RuoyanTollanes, Mette C.Tonelli, MarcelloTopor-Madry, RomanTortajada, MiguelTouvier, MathildeBach Xuan TranTripathi, SuryakantTroeger, ChristopherTruelsen, ThomasTsoi, DerrickTuem, Kald BeshirTuzcu, Emin MuratTyrovolas, StefanosUkwaja, Kingsley N.Undurraga, Eduardo A.Uneke, Chigozie JesseUpdike, RachelUthman, Olalekan A.Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudivan Boven, Job F. M.Varughese, SantoshVasankari, TommiVenkatesh, S.Venketasubramanian, NarayanaswamyVidavalur, RameshViolante, Francesco S.Vladimirov, Sergey K.Vlassov, Vasiliy VictorovichVollset, Stein EmilWadilo, FisehaWakayo, TolassaWang, Yuan-PangWeaver, MarciaWeichenthal, ScottWeiderpass, ElisabeteWeintraub, Robert G.Werdecker, AndreaWesterman, RonnyWhiteford, Harvey A.Wijeratne, TissaWiysonge, Charles SheyWolfe, Charles D. A.Woodbrook, RachelWoolf, Anthony D.Workicho, AbdulhalikHanson, Sarah WulfXavier, DenisXu, GelinYadgir, SimonYaghoubi, MohsenYakob, BereketYan, Lijing L.Yano, YuichiroYe, PengpengYimam, Hassen HamidYip, PaulYonemoto, NaohiroYoon, Seok-JunYotebieng, MarcelYounis, Mustafa Z.Zaidi, ZoubidaZaki, Maysaa El SayedZegeye, Elias AsfawZenebe, Zerihun MenlkalewZhang, XueyingZhou, MaigengZipkin, BenZodpey, SanjayZuhlke, Liesl JoannaMurray, Christopher J. L.
Issue Date
16-9월-2017
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
LANCET, v.390, no.10100, pp.1211 - 1259
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
LANCET
Volume
390
Number
10100
Start Page
1211
End Page
1259
URI
https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/82220
DOI
10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32154-2
ISSN
0140-6736
Abstract
Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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