기상변수를 이용한 도서지역 전력수요 예측 모형의 적합성에 관한 연구A Study on the Suitability of Load Demand Forecasting Models for Island Area Using Weather Variables
- Other Titles
- A Study on the Suitability of Load Demand Forecasting Models for Island Area Using Weather Variables
- Authors
- 김영은; 조용성; 김경남
- Issue Date
- 2017
- Publisher
- 한국신·재생에너지학회
- Keywords
- Load demand forecasting; ARIMA modelling; Multiple regression model; Regression-ARIMA mode; Energy-independence island; 전력 수요 예측; ARIMA 모델링; 다중 회귀 모형; 회귀-ARIMA 모형; 에너지자립섬
- Citation
- 신재생에너지, v.13, no.2, pp.84 - 93
- Indexed
- KCI
- Journal Title
- 신재생에너지
- Volume
- 13
- Number
- 2
- Start Page
- 84
- End Page
- 93
- URI
- https://scholar.korea.ac.kr/handle/2021.sw.korea/85552
- ISSN
- 1738-3935
- Abstract
- Long and short-term load demand forecasting are of great importance in the process of electricity policy formulation. Inparticular, load forecasting in an energy-independence island is essential for an appropriate investment in off-grid electrical powersystems using renewable energy sources. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three models in forecasting theelectricity load demand in an island area: the multiple regression model, ARIMA model, and Reg-ARIMA model, which is thecombined model of the two preceding ones. Using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) as a forecasting accuracy criterion and comparing the predicted and real values of the three islands in 2015, the studyconcluded that the combined method is a more appropriate model.
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Collections - College of Life Sciences and Biotechnology > Department of Food and Resource Economics > 1. Journal Articles
- Graduate School of Energy and Environment (KU-KIST GREEN SCHOOL) > Department of Energy and Environment > 1. Journal Articles
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