산지폐기 및 수매비축 사업이 노지채소 가격변동성에 미친 효과 분석

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the effect of disposal and stockpiling policies on the volatility of vegetable prices. Estimations of the ARMA-GARCH and ARMA-TARCH time series models that include heterogenous variances for the producer prices of Chinese cabbage, radish, garlic and onion show that the policies have reduced the price volatility of these products. According to the time series model reflecting the asymmetry of variance, the effect of the price drop on the price volatility is smaller than that of the price increase. This volatility structure can be interpreted as a result of the policies which have been conducted to prevent price collapse in the harvesting seasons.