실물옵션을 이용한 구조용 집성재 생산 방식에서의 투자의사 결정 연구

Abstract

Using real option approach, this study analyzes the economical efficiency for introducing a high-frequency heating machinery in the production of glued laminated wood for building framework. The critical points for an investment are derived by considering the uncertainty of selling price and various situations of productivity increase due to the installation of new machinery. Analytical results show that the selling price of glued laminated wood have to be at least 5,880won/ton for 5% increase in the productivity, 1,960won/ton for 15% increase in the productivity, and 1,176won/ton for 25% increase in the productivity due to the installation of new machinery. These analytical results suggest that the companies producing glued laminated wood have to be cautious when they introduce the new technology of high-frequency heating, since there is high uncertainty in the price and irreversibility for the investment. The risk of the price and productivity for glued laminated wood suggests that government’s support would facilitate the adoption of the technology of high-frequency heating.