Monitoring of Vegetation Dynamics in the Mongolia Using MODIS NDVIs and their Relationship to Rainfall by Natural Zone

Abstract

Vegetation plays a very important role conserving the natural environment and improving the living environment for humans. Thus, investigating spatio-temporal changes in vegetation is a crucial indicator to understand natural environmental changes. We explored the spatio-temporal trends of changing vegetation cover in Mongolia from 2002 to 2010 by investigating changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with rainfall. The 16-day composite NDVI time series Terra MODIS (MOD13A2) and the gridded rainfall data of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to identify the relationship between vegetation dynamics and rainfall. Residual NDVI trends were computed. Following our general procedure, monthly NDVI and annual rainfall were correlated for each pixel. The resulting regression equation represented the statistical association between observed NDVI and rainfall, and the model predicted NDVI according to rainfall. Residuals of NDVI (differences between the observed and predicted NDVI) for each pixel were calculated, and the trends in these residuals was analyzed by linear regression. From the 12 months NDVI and rainfall values they determine a linear regression line for each pixel. The positive or negative slope of this line is considered to reflect an increase or decrease in green biomass. Our results show that vegetation cover changes in Mongolia were caused by both natural factors and human activities. The natural vegetation change, such as those in forests was influenced by climate change, whereas human activities were the main reason for the change in vegetation planted.