A Forecast of Total Fertility Rate Reflecting Spectrum Period and Structural Change

Abstract

An ageing society can weaken the national competitiveness in terms of economic growth, labor supplies, consumer activities and the burden of excessive welfare expenditures on tax-payers. As a low fertility becomes one of significant factors contributing to an aging society, it came to an attention to our society as a serious social challenge and policy-related issue from 1980s in the advanced Western countries and 1990s and the early naughties(2000s) in Newly Emerging Economies such as China, Brazile, Taiwan and Korea. Therefore, it is inevitable that societies in any developmental stage have considered policy implementation in oder to overcome the problems caused by low fertility. In this respect, this study is interested in examining the shifts in fertility rates observed in Korea and other countries in middle- and long-term period of changes, and tries to predict the fertility rate by reflecting such periods. More specifically, this study examined whether and how any of significant period or structural change in fertility rate can determine or predict the fertility rate by reflecting them. The findings will be useful for governments to establish policies to improve low fertility or promote childbirth in such ways to raise the fertility rate to an optimum level, based on accurate comparison between nations that are still struggling with low fertility(Korea and Japan) and the rest of nations that have successfully overcome a problem related to low fertility.