A novel method of IP R&D using patent analysis and expert survey

Abstract

Intellectual property research and development (IP R&D) is an essential condition in order to be more competitive in the rapidly changing global market environment. The ultimate objective of IP R&D is technology forecasting. Technology forecasting (TF) attempts to discover the future state of a technology. Many quantitative and qualitative TF-related research efforts currently exist. Expert survey is a qualitative forecasting method; expert survey technology forecasting (ESTF) is one of many TF methods. The goal of ESTF is to predict the future state of a target technology using expert survey. Although ESTF has many advantages, it is less stable than other quantitative TF methods such as patent analysis because ESTF is subjectively based on the knowledge of experts. It is obvious that quantitative approaches such as patent analysis also have limitations. One of these limitations is the need for the experience of domain experts for the interpretation of patent analysis results. In this paper we propose a patent analysis approach that improves the performance of ESTF. Our approach combines patent analysis with the expert survey forecasting method to improve the predictive effectiveness of ESTF. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated by means of a case study involving TF work related to web survey technology.