The Greater Tumen Region Development Programme and Multilateral Policy Rationales: Geopolitical Factors Reconsidered

Abstract

The Tumen River area is considered to be strongly affected by geopolitics, and the GTI programme still has a very long way to go before it can be declared a success story. This article argues that political factors may have a steadily increasing effect on the GTI as part of a geoeconomic micro-regionalist framework. Indeed, political rivalries among the participants often appear more salient than regional ones. Moreover, an economic explanation for China's involvement in the TRADP is to some extent feasible, but not significantly persuasive. Furthermore, North Korea has tended to be increasingly wary of Chinese investment. Due to the strong South Korean connection with Yanbian, a great concern about rising Korean nationalism has also arisen in the Chinese government. Russia, for its part, may be committed to the project primarily due to its separatist-minded Russian Far East. Japan, however, is not geographically connected by land to the region, but in order to generate positive spill-over effects that include the Japanese economy, the GTI is in need of expanding its geographical coverage to also include the sea area of the East Sea (of the ROK). In the long term, the TRADP need not adhere to the GTI's previous formula of multilateralism. According to policy options, bilateral or trilateral frameworks are preferable.