The Effect of Rain on the Decision to Visit a Theme Park

Abstract

Using the data obtained from a theme park, this study assesses the effect of rain on the behavior of theme-park visitors. The study proposes a new method for identifying the effects of weather by modeling theme-park consumer behavior based on a two-stage decision-making process. In the first stage, potential visitors make a decision to visit in advance based on weather forecasts; in the second stage, the visitors determine which pass to purchase based on the actual on-site weather conditions. The empirical results suggest that people visit the park less when it rains, but the likelihood of their visiting depends on the exposure to weather forecasts. Specifically, a rainy day on which rain was forecast brings significantly fewer visitors than a day on which no rain was forecast. However, the reduction in the number of visitors increases the likelihood that a visitor will purchase the more expensive unlimited day pass; smaller crowds make an unlimited day pass more appealing to those visitors who choose to attend. Based on these findings, this article illustrates how to develop more attractive tickets or pricing schemes. Importantly, rough weather can be a great opportunity for theme parks to identify and exploit the inherent preferences of visitors in order to enhance customer welfare and park profits.