Jasmine Does Not Bloom in Pyongyang: The Persistent Non-transition in North Korea

Abstract

At the beginning of 2011, the world was shaken by an “earthquake” which struck the Middle East and African regions. Following the Arab Spring or Jasmine Revolution, many pundits stated that North Korea could be the next to be affected by this wind of change, and the North Korean dictatorial leadership could collapse soon. This assumption acquired further validity soon after Kim Jong-il’s death. This paper draws on the democratic transition and consolidation literature that has grown considerably in the last decades. According to this literature, a few factors facilitate and promote democratization – most prominently, an elite split between hardliners and softliners; the emergence of civil society and its pro-democracy movement; and a certain degree of international pressure. Through an analysis of these factors, this paper shows why North Korea is “resistant to change” and will not follow in the Middle East’s footsteps. We argue that the main reason for the non-transition in North Korea is the absence of the conditions that have been identified in the democratization literature as critical factors promoting democratic transition.