러시아-벨라루스 관계와 우크라이나 전쟁

초록

The on-going Russian-Ukrainian War has critically changed world politics and economy, as well as the relations among three Slavic nations. Observers and analysts have cited various reasons for the Russian-Ukrainian War, which started in February, 2022, but they did not pay much attention to the fact that Belarus’s political and military subjugation to Russia was the one of main factors which played an important role in Russia’s decision to launch a whole-scale war aiming at the conquest of the whole territory of Ukraine, including its capital, Kyiv. Many scholars argue that the expansion of NATO has seriously jeopardized the security of Russia and Russia’s so-called “special military operaton,” is the legitimate response to this challenge to the vital interests of Russia, However the process of war and Russia’s war plan have showed that the establishment of Russia-led East Slavic union is the ultimate aim of this war. The fact that, after the 2020 domestic crisis, Belarus became virtually Russia’s client state allowed Russia to set up an audacious plan to occupy the whole territory of Ukraine in a short period of time and henceforth Russia invaded Kviv from the Belarussian border without much preparations and failed to capture Kyiv. Without the subjugation of Belarus, Russia might have set up a military plan to occupy Donbass region and southern corridor connecting Donbass to Crimea as Russia’s current war efforts show. This study examines the history of Russia-Belarus relations since 1991 up to 2022. After listing the causes of the current war, it shows that the most critical precipitating cause for Russia’s whole-scale war was Belarus’s political and military subjugation to Russia. As for prospects for future relations between Russia and Belarus, if the war go on without clear victor, Belarus would remains as serving military base for Russia. If Russia fail to win the war and a regime change take place in Russia and Lukashenko’s regime might also face the similar fate.

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