한국경제의 자본 성장 궤적 및 이윤율의 변화에 관한 연구 (1971-2021) - 자본성장의 멱궤도 적합과 이윤율-순고정자본의 상관성 연구

초록

This paper analyzes the trajectory of capital growth and changes in the profit rate in the Korean economy using National Accounts data for 1971–2021, and quantitatively examines the intrinsic dynamics of capital accumulation. Although previous studies have examined the profit rate in the Korean economy, relatively few have analyzed structural breakpoints in the profit rate. Moreover, insufficient attention has been paid to linking changes in the profit rate with empirical analysis of the trajectory of capital growth. This paper therefore seeks to complement and differentiate itself from existing studies by generalizing and statistically testing the trajectory of capital accumulation on the basis of the decline in the profit rate and capital productivity. Methodologically, the paper applies the power-law decline trajectory of capital productivity proposed by Duménil and Lévy to time-series data on fixed capital, and compares it with the logistic trajectory. The difference between the two trajectories can be explained by changes in the rate of decline in capital productivity, that is, in the profit rate. When the rate of decline slows at a stable pace, the trajectory is more likely to follow a power-law path; when the rate of decline accelerates, it is more likely to follow a logistic path. The analysis shows that the macroeconomic profit rate and capital productivity of the Korean economy exhibit a long-term declining tendency, and that structural breakpoints in the profit rate can also be identified. In the analysis of the trajectory of fixed capital, both the power-law function and the logistic function are found to have high explanatory power. In addition, a statistically significant negative long-run cointegrating relationship is found between fixed capital and the profit rate, while a statistically significant positive relationship is observed between the rate of capital accumulation and the profit rate. These results suggest, first, that although the growth of the Korean economy has been driven by capital accumulation, this very process of accumulation has also created the conditions for growth slowdown through the decline in the profit rate and capital productivity. Second, they suggest that capital growth in the Korean economy is situated on an unstable boundary: it is approaching structural limits while, at the same time, counteracting forces against those limits continue to operate.

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