가격 위험을 고려한 양파 재배면적 전망모형 개발 －EV 모형과 MGARCH 모형을 중심으로－

초록

Although the price and price volatility of an agricultural product are the most important factors to be considered in forecasting the cultivated area, previous studies that investigated the determinants of the cultivated area have not analyzed the dynamic relationship between price volatility and the cultivated area. In this study, in order to analyze the effect of price and price risk on the cultivated area, the expected-variance model(EV-Model), which is derived from the farmer’s utility maximization problem, is applied. In addition, to compensate for the limitations of the EV model, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity time series model is estimated for reflecting the dynamic correlation between the cultivated area and price as well as price volatility. As a result of forecasting the cultivated area of onion using the analysis results of this study, the error between the actual and the forecast cultivation areas for 2021 is estimated to be 5.07% when only the EV model estimation result is used. In the case of taking into account the changing trend of the dynamic correlation coefficient derived from the MGARCH model, the error is calculated to be 4.82%, which implies that calculating the forecast by reflecting the dynamic correlation is a better approach that reduces the error.

키워드