Strategic Analysis of South Korea’s Global Defense Supply Chain Expansion: Focus on NATO Cooperation Using AHP-DEMATEL

초록

The global defense supply chain is currently facing a series of significant challenges. These challenges can be attributed to several factors, including the escalating technological competition between the United States and China, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the increasing prevalence of economic protectionist measures. In this rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, South Korea has emerged as a significant actor by expanding its defense exports to member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This study explores how South Korea can enhance the stability and scalability of its defense supply chain through strategic cooperation with the alliance. The analysis employs the PMESII framework, which encompasses political, military, economic, social, informational, and infrastructure factors. Two decision-making tools were applied to the research process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to ascertain the relative priority of the strategic elements, while the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method was utilized to identify the cause-and-effect relationships among them. The results indicate that while there are advantages, such as the rapid delivery capability of NATO standard-compliant weapon systems, there are still challenges, including dependence on foreign parts and the need to maintain diplomatic balance. In response, a strategic plan centered on diplomacy, intelligence, military preparedness, and economic support is proposed.

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