The Impact of the Russo-Ukraine War on the EAEU’s Political and Economic Integration

초록

This study examines the far-reaching impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in terms of political and economic integration. The EAEU, formed in 2015, aimed for deep integration among member states with a focus on sustainable economic development and a common market. However, the actual implementation of these objectives has faced challenges, and external shocks such as the war in Ukraine have raised questions about the union’s ability to balance geopolitical complexities and internal political cohesion for economic growth. The conflict has revealed divisions among EAEU member states, particularly on the dissonance among member states over its stance towards the Russo-Ukrainian war. While economic concerns largely influenced the responses of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, security dependencies primarily motivated Belarus and Armenia. Nevertheless, the EAEU has demonstrated economic resilience, with member states like Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan experiencing economic growth,driven by their roles as logistical hubs and beneficiaries from positive trade flows. The study suggests that the outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war will significantly shape the EAEU’s future, with a victorious Russia potentially deepening political integration, while a less favorable outcome could exacerbate the existing political divisions. The EAEU’s path forward involves reconciling internal political differences while leveraging its economic strengths, as it stands at a critical crossroad, facing both political challenges and economic opportunities that could enhance its global relevance. This study contributes to the understanding of how geopolitical crises affect regional integration and sets the stage for future research on the EAEU’s evolving dynamics in a complex international context.

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