Cost-benefit analysis on carbon capture and storage (CCS) project: The case of Jawa 9 & 10 power plant in Indonesia

초록

As Indonesia advances toward its net-zero emissions target, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is emerging as a vital mitigation strategy, especially for coal-based power generation. This study examines the economic feasibility of implementing CCS at the Jawa 9 & 10 coal-fired power plant in Suralaya, Indonesia, through a costbenefit analysis (CBA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) over 30 years. Four CCS scenarios are analyzed based on two transportation methods (pipeline, shipping) and two carbon pricing methods (domestic, international). Results show that domestic price scenarios yield a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 0.5-0.6, signaling financial infeasibility. In contrast, international price scenarios achieve a BCR of 1.1-1.2, reflecting stronger revenues from carbon credits. Pipeline transport consistently outperforms shipping due to lower operating costs. Sensitivity analysis highlights that a 1% increase in carbon price results in about a 1.003-1.005% increase in the BCR, while a 1 %age point increase in the discount rate decreases the BCR by about 3.8-4.3%. The findings suggest that under current pricing mechanisms, CCS remains economically unviable in Indonesia. Policy priorities include enhancing carbon pricing, expanding concessional financing, and fostering public-private partnerships to support large-scale CCS deployment. This study contributes to the literature by modeling project-level financial thresholds and identifying enabling policy conditions for CCS in developing economies.

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