From prediction to projection: challenges and future directions for physician workforce estimation

초록

Purpose: Although the activities of the Committee for Health Workforce Projections have concluded, methodological debates persist. This opinion analyzes the technical and policy limitations of previous workforce estimations and proposes an academic direction for future governance to ensure scientific validity. Current concepts: Long-term workforce planning requires "projection" based on conditional scenarios, which is conceptually distinct from short-term "forecasts" or probabilistic "predictions." While countries such as the United States and Japan employ simulation models that incorporate dynamic policy variables, Korea's recent approach relied on inappropriate time-series models and lacked adequate data processing and preparation. Discussion and conclusion: This opinion identifies critical failures in data readiness, model selection, and verification process-es. To address these limitations, we propose establishing a permanent technical working group that is institutionally separate from political bodies to ensure rigorous methodological validation. Essential reforms include the creation of a standardized analytical dataset and the adoption of dynamic models capable of simulating policy interventions rather than merely extrapo-lating past trends. Ultimately, workforce estimation must evolve into a rational policy tool grounded in long-term social delib-eration.

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