Evaluating multidimensional climate risk perception using an index approach: A study of agrarian households in the Central Karakoram, Pakistan

초록

Agrarian households in the high mountains of Pakistan's Central Karakoram are exceptionally vulnerable to climatic risks. However, climate-induced multi-risk perceptions remain underexplored in the existing scientific and empirical literature. Understanding climatic driven risk perception is essential for making informed decisions and developing effective adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study evaluates agrarian households’ perceptions of multidimensional climatic risks using a quantitative research design and an index approach. Field data were collected through a structured household survey of 412 randomly selected agrarian households in the Central Karakoram, Pakistan. The data were analyzed using univariate analysis and index calculation. The results of univariate analyses reveal that climate change has triggered diverse physical, biological, social and financial risks in the study area. About 75.7% of respondents observed an increase in flooding, and 71.4% experienced a rise in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). While, 76.9% reported a higher incidence of crop diseases and 59.3% observed an increase in livestock diseases. On the financial and social fronts, 86.9% highlighted a sharp rise in farm input prices, and 70.4% identified heightened risks of food insecurity. The index analysis results indicate that the overall score for the climate risk perception index (CRPI) was 0.68. The index for each dimension was highest for climatic and biological risks (0.74), followed by social risk (0.69), physical risk (0.64), and financial risk (0.53). The findings highlight the need for integrated, locally grounded, and risk-informed adaptation strategies for high-mountain agriculture that address the diverse risks perceived by agrarian households. This study contributes to climate risk management literature by providing empirical evidence for context-specific adaptation planning and policy development in vulnerable high mountain communities. © 2026 The Author(s)

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