국민연금법 7차개정이 임금에 미친 영향: 패널 분석을 통한 실증연구

초록

This study empirically examines changes in wage levels after the 2007 National Pension Act reform in South Korea. The reform included a structural reduction in the income replacement rate from 60% to 40% by 2028, which has important implications for labor market participation and wage levels among older workers. Using data from the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) spanning from 1998 to 2023, this study applies an extended fixed-effect model based on the Mincer Earnings Regression, controlling for key variables such as education level, age, and household characteristics. The fixed-effects estimates show that the AFTER2007 variable is not statistically significant, indicating that there is no evidence that the 2007 National Pension Act reform had a direct and statistically significant effect on wage levels. Education and age remained significant determinants of wage levels. However, the pension reform may have indirectly affected other labor market outcomes, such as labor market participation, retirement timing, and employment continuity. Therefore, future research should further examine these labor market channels while considering generational characteristics and broader institutional changes.

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