의도치 않은 결과? 시위가 투표율에 미치는 효과에 대한 연구

초록

Do protests encourage electoral participation of voters? There are scholarly discussions on the relationship between protesting and voting, as they are typical examples of non-institutional and institutional forms of political participation in democracy, respectively. Theoretical exploration and empirical research on this subject matter have yet to be developed because the studies of social movements and electoral politics are two different sub-fields separately developed in comparative politics while rarely communicating with each other. Conforming to a recent call for bridging these two sub-fields, this article attempts to specify the mechanism by which protests affect voter turnout. We particularly emphasize political interest and efficacy of ordinary citizens, since they can be influenced by large scale protest events and, in turn, influence the turnout of voters. This theoretical speculation is empirical Do protests encourage electoral participation of voters? There are scholarly discussions on the relationship between protesting and voting, as they are typical examples of non-institutional and institutional forms of political participation in democracy, respectively. Theoretical exploration and empirical research on this subject matter have yet to be developed because the studies of social movements and electoral politics are two different sub-fields separately developed in comparative politics while rarely communicating with each other. Conforming to a recent call for bridging these two sub-fields, this article attempts to specify the mechanism by which protests affect voter turnout. We particularly emphasize political interest and efficacy of ordinary citizens, since they can be influenced by large scale protest events and, in turn, influence the turnout of voters. This theoretical speculation is empirically explored by using the Dynamics of Collective Action (DCA) protest event data and the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey data. The empirical results show that large and salient protest events increase voters’ political interest and then the likelihood of turnout for voting. ly explored by using the Dynamics of Collective Action (DCA) protest event data and the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey data. The empirical results show that large and salient protest events increase voters’ political interest and then the likelihood of turnout for voting.

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