Does violent delinquency predict premature death? Testing behavioral and socioeconomic mechanisms across the life course

초록

This study examines whether adolescent delinquency prospectively predicts premature mortality in adulthood, differentiates between violent and nonviolent offending, and assesses behavioral and socioeconomic pathways linking early offending to early death. Data are from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a nationally representative cohort with mortality follow-up through 2023 (N = 15,168; 502 deaths). Cox proportional hazards and competing-risks models estimate associations between offending types and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Mediation analyses assess the explanatory roles of health behaviors and socioeconomic attainment measured in early adulthood. Violent delinquency is significantly associated with elevated all-cause mortality, whereas nonviolent delinquency shows no meaningful association. Excess mortality among violent offenders is concentrated in external causes. Cigarette smoking, high school completion, and employment status emerge as significant mediators, collectively accounting for a substantial share of the total association. Violent delinquency marks a distinct life-course pathway characterized by sustained behavioral risk, cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage, and elevated likelihood of premature death. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing offending types and highlight modifiable intervention targets for reducing premature mortality among high-risk youth. © 2026 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

키워드