전세대출 보증 확대가 규제효과를 감쇄시키는가? - 서울 25개구 패널분석을 통한 정책수단 간 상쇄의 실증 -

초록

During the Moon Jae-in administration, housing price regulations and the expansion of Jeonse loan guarantees were implemented simultaneously. However, the interaction between these two policy instruments has received limited empirical attention. This study examines whether the expansion of Jeonse loan guarantees structurally weakened the effectiveness of housing price regulations in Seoul’s apartment market. We analyze a strongly balanced monthly panel of Seoul’s 25 districts over 89 months, from January 2015 to May 2022, using an exposure-based, continuous-treatment difference-in-differences design combined with a shift-share (Bartik) identification strategy. Jeonse loan exposure, constructed by interacting nationwide guarantee balances with district-level shares of Jeonse households, is used as the moderating variable. The results show that the expansion of Jeonse loan guarantees significantly attenuated the price-dampening effect of housing price regulations. Conditional marginal-effects analysis further indicates that this attenuation was more pronounced in districts with higher shares of Jeonse households. Identification checks, including event-study analysis, pre-trend tests, and tests of the correlates of exposure shares, support the plausibility of the identification strategy. Robustness checks using alternative exposure shares, fixed-effects specifications, and sample periods also confirm the stability of the main findings. These findings suggest that the simultaneous implementation of price-suppressing regulations and liquidity-expanding Jeonse loan guarantees created a trade-off between policy instruments. They underscore the need for ex ante policy-consistency reviews, stronger cross-ministerial coordination, and systematic management of guarantee volumes.

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