Structural shifts in the global arms trade by weapon type: shifting core transfer states and network multipolarity

초록

This study empirically examines the structural transformation of the global arms trade through a network analysis disaggregated by weapon type. Prior research has largely focused on aggregate transfer volumes, overlooking structural variations across weapon systems. To address this gap, the present study analyzes networks for six weapon categories - aircraft, ships, missiles, sensors, artillery, and air defense - and traces the evolving roles of central actors. The results show that during the Cold War the United States and Soviet Union dominated a bipolar structure, whereas the post - Cold War era has witnessed the rise of Germany, France, China, Israel, Sweden, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates as influential players in specific markets, indicating a transition toward multipolarity. The analysis further reveals that China has partially assumed Russia's role in sectors such as sensors and artillery, while the United States has ceded ship trade leadership to European states, most notably France and Germany. These findings demonstrate that disaggregation by weapon type uncovers distinct trade patterns and clarifies how leading suppliers shift across systems. Overall, the study underscores the importance of a network-based, weapon-specific approach for understanding the evolving structure of the global arms trade.

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