Party organizational strength and voter turnout in authoritarian regimes

초록

This study examines how ruling party organizational strength influences voter turnout in authoritarian elections. While parties and elections serve as crucial instruments for authoritarian survival, their effect on voter mobilization remains understudied. We argue that organizationally robust ruling parties-characterized by extensive grassroots networks and deep societal ties-enhance regimes' capacity to manipulate electoral participation. However, dictators do not uniformly maximize turnout but selectively mobilize supporters while demobilizing opponents, particularly in competitive elections. Accordingly, we hypothesize that the effect of party strength on turnout is conditional on electoral competitiveness. Analyzing 94 autocracies from 1970-2019, we find that party organizational strength significantly increases turnout in non-competitive elections but has negligible effects in competitive contests. This pattern intensified after the Cold War as competitive authoritarianism proliferated globally.

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