Trade Impacts of Import Ban and Regionalization Measures against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

초록

Purpose – This paper aims to analyze how import ban and regionalization measures against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) impact the global bilateral trade of frozen chicken cuts and poultry eggs. Design/methodology/approach - This study constructed panel database of global bilateral trade for chicken and egg products over the 2010-2015 period, and estimated gravity equations with eh Heckman two-step (HTS) and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) methods. Findings - First, the HTS method indicate that an import ban against HPAI reduces trade values of frozen chicken cuts and poultry eggs by about 18% and 7%, respectively. Second, PPML estimates suggest the adoption of a regionalization policy in response to HPAI facilitate bilateral trade of frozen chicken cuts by about 118%, but the poultry egg trade is not shown to be statistically significant. Research implications or Originality – The empirical findings provide significant evidence that the import ban played a role as a substantial trade barrier, while the adoption of the regionalization principle promotes the global trade of livestock products to a large extent.

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