Language Policy and Conflict: A Data Analysis of Indigenous Language Shift in Bolivia (1976–2012)

초록

This study evaluates the impact of Bolivia’s multicultural bilingual education policies on indigenous language maintenance using census microdata from 1976 and 2012. Descriptive analysis shows a dual trajectory: lowland departments, already Spanish-dominant, reached near-complete monolingualism by 2012, while highland regions preserved substantial Quechua and Aymara populations despite decline. Youth cohorts in the lowlands exhibited strong Spanish orientation, whereas highland youth sustained indigenous transmission. Educational participation approached 90% across regions, indicating that multilingual environments did not hinder schooling.A difference-in-differences design across nine departments reveals a paradoxical result: areas with higher initial indigenous speaker proportions (≥50%) experienced larger relative declines. Both permutation testing (p=0.039) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (β_DiD = -1.117, 95% HDI: -1.146 to -1.089) confirm significant negative effects. These findings highlight the unintended consequences of language policies and underscore the need for regionally tailored, long-term strategies that balance Spanish competency with indigenous language preservation.

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