Partisan sorting, affective polarization, and democratic backsliding: evidence from South Korea

초록

Despite a growing body of literature on the political consequences of affective polarization, empirical evidence on its relationship with undemocratic attitudes remains mixed. This article integrates partisan sorting into the analysis, examining both its direct and mediated effects on undemocratic attitudes to identify the conditions under which these effects emerge. We argue that under democratic governance, partisan sorting among ruling party supporters reinforces support for democratic norms and principles, often through an indirect pathway, while opposition party supporters remain unaffected. In contrast, under undemocratic governance, partisan sorting among ruling party supporters can intensify undemocratic attitudes, whereas opposition party supporters show stronger democratic commitments, driven by a strong direct effect. To test these arguments, we analyse the Korean case using two individual-level survey datasets from the democratic Moon Jae-in government and two from the undemocratic Yoon Suk-yeol government. Results from causal mediation analysis suggest that the impact of partisan sorting - and the mediating role of affective polarization in shaping (un)democratic attitudes - depends on whether the incumbent government upholds democratic norms and values.

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