The Effects of US Policy Controls on Semiconductor Exports from South Korea and Taiwan to China

초록

This paper examines the impact of United States semiconductor export controls on South Korea’s exports to China and Hong Kong relative to Taiwan. Utilizing a Triple Difference-in-Differences (DDD) framework at both the aggregate (4-digit HS code) and product (6-digit HS code) levels for semiconductor products (HS code: 8542), this study analyzes five distinct policy shocks implemented between 2019 and 2025. Specifically, it evaluates how these policy shocks influenced export volumes and prices across various semiconductor categories. The empirical research incorporates fixed effects to control for exporter-specific, destination-specific, and product-level variations, thereby ensuring a more precise identification of the policy effects. The empirical findings indicate that the October 2022 policy shock under the Biden administration induced the most substantial decline in export volume, particularly within the memory semiconductor sector. Conversely, in the subsequent periods—particularly post-2023—evidence of market adjustment emerged, characterized by an upward trend in prices. To ensure empirical validity, the robustness of the primary results is substantiated using a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML)

키워드