공공기관 지방 이전 및 혁신도시 정책의 인구이동 효과 분석: 유입 경로, 연령집단별 차이, 지역 간 이질성에 대한 실증적 접근

초록

This study provides a multidimensional analysis of the effects of public institution relocation and the Innovation City policy on interregional population mobility in Korea. While previous studies have primarily evaluated policy outcomes based on changes in total population or aggregate net migration, this study reexamines the policy effects by considering migration pathways, age structure, temporal persistence, and regional heterogeneity. To this end, this study constructs a city-county-district-level panel dataset covering the period from 2003 to 2024 and applies a multi-period difference-in-differences (Multi-period DID) model. In particular, net migration is decomposed into inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration, and heterogeneous effects are analyzed by age group —core working-age population, children and youth, and older adults—as well as by regional type, distinguishing between metropolitan districts and non-metropolitan cities and counties. The results show that the average policy effect on net migration across all regions is not statistically significant. This finding suggests that the overall average effect may have been diluted due to heterogeneous effects across regional types and migration pathways. In Innovation City areas located in non-metropolitan cities and counties, net migration increased significantly after policy implementation, and the effect persisted over the medium to long term. In contrast, no statistically significant change was observed in Innovation City areas located in metropolitan districts. In particular, the observed inflow effect was driven primarily by net migration across provincial boundaries rather than by intra-provincial population redistribution. By age group, the effect was most pronounced among the core working-age population. Overall, the findings suggest that the Innovation City policy generated a selective external inflow effect, distinct from intra-provincial redistribution, by inducing net inflows across provincial boundaries particularly among the core working-age population in Innovation City areas located in non-metropolitan cities and counties. This study contributes to the literature by reinterpreting the policy effects through a multidimensional analysis that reflects the structural characteristics of population mobility. It also provides empirical evidence for the formulation of future balanced regional development strategies.

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