수도권 운행차 대기오염 저감사업의 효과: 실물옵션분석

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate an environmental regulation program which enforces installation of filtering equipment to reduce major air pollutants from used diesel vehicles. A real option model is presented to incorporate fuel cost uncertainty and irreversibility of emission-reducing investment. A finite-life option based on finite difference method is developed to consider the limited life expectancy of used vehicles. After taking into account social benefits from emission reduction and costs from decreasing fuel efficiency after the adoption of filtering technology, the result finds overall positive performance of the Pollution Reduction Program. However, the result suggests that the Program be designed to be more specific to vehicle types to improve program performance.