주요 청과물 가격 추세 및 가격변동성의 특징 분석

Abstract

This study analyzes the trend and volatility of the prices of cabbage, radish, red pepper, garlic, pear, apple, cherry tomato and water melon. The general price movement of these products shows rising trend. However, the trends of the prices of red pepper and pear are not estimated to be significant. This implies that producers of these products have experienced profit, loss over the past. 10 years, since production costs have continuously increased. The results of Quandt-Andrews break point test which is conducted for identifying the timing of the strucutral change of the prices and the estimation results of GARCH model indicate that the volatilities of the prices are rapidly increased in recent years. This implies that there is an increased need for the policies that stabilize the prices of agricultural products. Estimation results of EGARCH model show that the price volatilities of radish, red pepper and garlic have been caused by the price increase, while those of cabbage, apple, pear, cherry tomato, water melon have been caused by the price decline.