Predicting distributional change of forest cover and volume in future climate of South Korea

Abstract

This study was performed to estimate the forest cover and volume change using the potential forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data of South Korea. The regression models were developed to predict mean diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height (h) and number of trees (Nha) for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi, Castanea crenata and Quercus spp. stand using NFI data. The second step was to prepare potential forest cover maps after 50 and 100 years using the Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups (HyTAGs), and then we compared the produced map with the present forest cover map. For the area where forest cover is changed after 50 years, therefore, the volume could be calculated using regression models and DBH and tree height estimated by age class 1 in this study. On the other hand, the volume of unchanged forest area could be predicted with DBHk+5 and Nhak+5 adding age class 5 (50 years) to the present age class k on the forest cover map. The forest volume after 100 years was also calculated with the same process of after-50 years. As a result, it was predicted that the forest cover would be changed rapidly into Quercus spp. forests for the coming 100 years, accompanying the diminution of coniferous forest. The forest volume would dramatically decrease by 358,719,160 m3 for the coming 50 years because about 80% of coniferous forests are changed into young forests of Quercus spp. by climate change. The forest volume after 100 years would increase to 315,810,920 m3 due to the growth of young forest during 50 years. However, it should be noted that the change of forest cover and volume was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree planting in this study. © 2012 Korean Forest Society.